What Happened

A little over a week after Quebec’s traditional moving day, 71 households in Montreal remain in emergency housing, nearly double the 40 households in that situation last year. This surge highlights the acute rental shortages and affordability pressures facing the city. Simultaneously, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) reported that the national housing affordability crisis has expanded beyond its traditional strongholds of Toronto and Vancouver. The crisis has now significantly impacted Ottawa, Montreal, and Halifax, where affordability nosedived between 2020 and 2023. While Calgary has seen lower home prices, it continues to struggle with affordability, leaving Edmonton as the only major city where affordability has held up. The CMHC’s report, released on February 25, tracks homeownership affordability from 1991 to 2025, identifying three major periods of erosion: 2001 to 2007, 2015 to 2020, and 2020 to 2023. Despite slight improvements since bottoming out in 2023, the market has not rebounded proportionately to housing activity shifts in 2025. Mathieu Laberge, chief economist at CMHC, noted there is a light at the end of the tunnel for affordability, but conditions remain difficult. Kari Norman of Desjardins Group cited the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s estimate of 631,000 suppressed households in Canada, a number likely higher now due to population growth. Improving ownership market conditions have not yet triggered a broad-based release of these suppressed households.

Why It Matters

The data indicates that housing affordability is still too far out of reach for many Canadians, with the crisis no longer confined to the largest metropolitan areas. The surge in Montreal’s emergency housing numbers serves as a stark indicator of the immediate human cost of rental market tightness and the failure of the private market to absorb moving-day demand. This reflects a broader national trend where elevated rents have blocked potential buyers from saving for down payments, perpetuating a cycle of suppressed demand. The CMHC’s identification of three distinct affordability erosion periods underscores a long-term structural issue rather than a temporary fluctuation. The fact that affordability has only slightly improved since its 2023 low suggests that the market is in a fragile recovery phase, where activity may not translate into accessible housing for new entrants.

Local Vancouver / Burnaby Context

While this report focuses on national trends and Montreal’s specific emergency housing crisis, the CMHC’s assertion that the crisis has spread to Ottawa, Montreal, and Halifax signals a significant shift in Canada’s housing geography. Historically, Vancouver and Toronto were the primary epicenters of affordability distress. The inclusion of Montreal and Halifax in the same category as Toronto and Vancouver suggests that regional disparities are narrowing, with previously more affordable markets now facing severe pressure. For Burnaby and Vancouver, this context is critical because it validates the long-standing warnings from local experts about the contagion effect of national affordability issues. As affordability erodes in other major cities, the relative stability of Edmonton or the price corrections in Calgary may draw migration patterns that could eventually impact Greater Vancouver’s rental and ownership markets. The mention of an oversupply of pricier rental units in Montreal also mirrors trends seen in other major Canadian cities, where new construction often targets higher-income demographics, leaving lower-income renters in emergency situations. The suppression of 631,000 households nationally highlights the massive pent-up demand that could eventually spill over into markets like Burnaby if local supply constraints are not addressed.

Market Impact

The persistence of 71 households in emergency housing in Montreal suggests a continued tightness in the lower-end rental market, which typically feeds into the secondary rental market and influences broader rent growth. Nationally, the 631,000 suppressed households represent a significant reservoir of potential demand that is currently locked out. If ownership conditions improve further, this demand could eventually enter the market, potentially driving up prices in secondary markets like Halifax or Ottawa, or reinforcing demand in established markets like Vancouver and Burnaby. The lack of a proportional rebound in housing activity despite improved conditions indicates that lender requirements, down payment barriers, and psychological caution are still suppressing transaction volumes. This stagnation benefits current owners by preserving asset values but hinders market liquidity for new buyers.

Builder / Developer Perspective

The CMHC’s note on an oversupply of pricier rental units in Montreal suggests that developers may be over-indexing on higher-end products, missing the market for affordable townhouses and row houses. This imbalance contributes to the emergency housing crisis as lower-income renters are priced out of the new supply. For builders in Burnaby and Vancouver, this reinforces the need to focus on missing middle housing types to capture demand from suppressed households. The slow erosion of affordability since the early 2000s indicates that construction costs and land prices have consistently outpaced income growth, requiring careful feasibility analysis for any new affordable projects. The lack of a broad-based release of suppressed households suggests that financing and down payment requirements remain the primary bottlenecks, not just supply availability.

BurnabyHouse Insight

The narrative that the housing crisis is confined to Toronto and Vancouver is outdated. The CMHC’s data confirms that affordability erosion is now a national phenomenon, with Montreal, Ottawa, and Halifax joining the list of distressed markets. For BurnabyHouse readers, this is a signal that the 'safe haven' status of certain markets is relative and temporary. The surge in Montreal’s emergency housing is a leading indicator of what happens when rental supply fails to meet moving-day demand. The 631,000 suppressed households are a ticking time bomb for the broader economy, representing lost productivity and consumption. As affordability improves slightly in some areas, the key question is whether this will unlock demand or if structural barriers like down payments will continue to suppress it. The focus on affordable townhouses and row houses is not just a policy preference but a market necessity to address the gap between new supply and actual demand.