What Happened

TD Economics has revised its 2026 forecast for the Metro Vancouver real estate market, predicting that condominium prices will continue to decline throughout the year. The bank's economists state that the local condo market remains under significant pressure due to a combination of weak buyer demand and elevated new inventory levels. Condo prices are projected to fall by approximately three percent, bringing the average condo price down to roughly $712,853. This downward trajectory is expected to persist through 2026, with the market remaining subdued since last August and showing little sign of stabilization. The forecast reflects a broader national housing correction, with Canadian home prices dropping 18 percent from their peak in the first quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2025. National composite prices were down four percent in December 2025 compared to the previous year, while annual sales fell nearly two percent. TD economists note that the predicted price drop may impact pre-sale viability and financing terms for developers. The lack of stabilization in prices suggests that the adjustment process is ongoing, with no immediate catalyst for a rebound. The forecast of a roughly 15-percent peak-to-trough decline from the 2023 high is expected to be reached by mid-2027. Rates rose to five percent from 0.25 percent, significantly increasing borrowing costs and dampening affordability.

Why It Matters

The revised forecast signals that the Metro Vancouver condo market is still searching for a floor, driven by a glut of new supply and weak buyer demand. This environment is influenced by broader national economic headwinds, including weak population growth and a sluggish economy. The region's housing market has been affected by economic and cost-of-living worries, which are reducing buyer confidence and extending time on market. For homeowners and potential buyers, this means that price declines may continue beyond the current three percent forecast if economic conditions worsen. The sustained pressure on prices highlights the difficulty of achieving market stability in the near term.

Local Vancouver / Burnaby Context

The local condo market in Metro Vancouver is 'still searching for a floor,' according to TD Economics. The environment is influenced by broader national economic headwinds, including weak population growth and a sluggish economy. The region's housing market has been affected by economic and cost-of-living worries, which are reducing buyer confidence and extending time on market. Sales in 2025 fell nearly two percent, reflecting cautious sentiment. Vancouver’s downturn should remain milder than Toronto’s, with prices expected to stay above pre-pandemic levels. However, the lack of stabilization in prices suggests that the adjustment process is ongoing, with no immediate catalyst for a rebound. The forecast of a roughly 15-percent peak-to-trough decline from the 2023 high is expected to be reached by mid-2027. Rates rose to five percent from 0.25 percent, significantly increasing borrowing costs and dampening affordability. The predicted price drop may impact pre-sale viability and financing terms for developers.

Market Impact

The continued decline in condo prices is likely to suppress land values and make redevelopment feasibility more challenging for investors. High borrowing costs from the rate-hiking campaign are impacting affordability, while weak population growth is limiting demand and exacerbating supply gluts. Elevated inventory levels are suppressing prices and extending time on market. For owners, this means that equity gains are unlikely in the short term, and selling may require significant price concessions. For renters, the slowdown in new construction due to financial pressures could limit future rental supply growth.

Builder / Developer Perspective

The predicted price drop may impact pre-sale viability and financing terms for developers. High borrowing costs from the rate-hiking campaign are impacting affordability, while weak population growth is limiting demand and exacerbating supply gluts. Elevated inventory levels are suppressing prices and extending time on market. For owners, this means that equity gains are unlikely in the short term, and selling may require significant price concessions. For renters, the slowdown in new construction due to financial pressures could limit future rental supply growth.

BurnabyHouse Insight

TD Economics' revised forecast underscores the persistent pressure on Metro Vancouver's condo market, driven by a combination of weak buyer demand and elevated new inventory levels. The region's housing market has been affected by economic and cost-of-living worries, which are reducing buyer confidence and extending time on market. Sales in 2025 fell nearly two percent, reflecting cautious sentiment. Vancouver’s downturn should remain milder than Toronto’s, with prices expected to stay above pre-pandemic levels. However, the lack of stabilization in prices suggests that the adjustment process is ongoing, with no immediate catalyst for a rebound. The forecast of a roughly 15-percent peak-to-trough decline from the 2023 high is expected to be reached by mid-2027. Rates rose to five percent from 0.25 percent, significantly increasing borrowing costs and dampening affordability. The predicted price drop may impact pre-sale viability and financing terms for developers.